The consensus among Emmy prognosticators is that “30 Rock” is likely to win its third straight Emmy for best comedy series on Sunday. But it’s not a complete lock.
Here’s why: There are seven nominees in the category this year, which means that any of them could win with as little as 15 percent of the votes cast. When the bar for victory is that low, it wouldn’t take a ton of votes to sway the outcome one way or another and produce a big upset. There’s also the chance (albeit a really slight one — “Frasier” won five years in a row, after all) that voters will just want to change things up this year and honor another show.
OK — even as I typed that last sentence, it started to look ridiculous. But the thing about not needing many votes to cause an upset? That could still potentially happen.
If I were a one-man TV academy, this is how I would rank the nominees. I don’t necessarily think this is how it will go on Sunday — I’m with the consensus that says “30 Rock” will probably win — but I’m playing favorites here. As was the case with the comedy and drama acting polls earlier in the week, you can have your say in the poll below and the comments.
“The Office”: If the Emmys judged series nominees by a full season rather than just the six episodes submitted for voting, “The Office” should win. The writers and cast kept the quality consistently high last season and freshened things up enough with the Amy Ryan and Michael Scott Paper Co. arcs to make me care about things nearly every week.
“30 Rock”: The defending champ had its ups and downs, particularly in the stunt casting-happy first portion of the season. At its best, though, no show has a higher laugh-per-minute ratio.
“How I Met Your Mother”: I’m glad to see “HIMYM” finally get a best series nod, and I have a tremendous amount of affection for the characters. That said, I don’t think last season was its best, and I don’t think enough members love it enough to make it a serious contender.
“Family Guy”: It’s already earned some measure of recognition by virtue of competing for best comedy, not just best animated series, and if fans within the TV academy are as hard-core as those in the general population, it has a shot. But I don’t quite see it getting the top spot.
“Flight of the Conchords”: It wasn’t as consistent in season two as it was the first time around, but “Conchords” can still give me the giggles just thinking about it. That said, it’s probably the longest shot of all the nominees.
“Weeds”: There are still several things to love about this show, most notably the performances of Justin Kirk and Kevin Nealon. Mary-Louise Parker, however, has started to wear a little thin for me, and as she’s the central figure in the show, that’s a problem.
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