With only a couple of days left before Sunday’s Emmycast, you’ve been inundated with predictions of who will win. We gave ours Thursday (Sept. 20), and sites like Gold Derby have been kind enough to gather the opinions of many critics (including Zap2It‘s own Rick Porter) in a handy grid.
The names on those lists are more or less aligned with what we discussed: “Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men,” Bryan Cranston, Claire Danes, “Modern Family,” and others. But a list you’ll rarely see is the group of nominees that definitely won’t win.
We’re not talking about people and shows that might win or are dark horses. These are nominees that have absolutely no shot, no matter how much they might deserve to bring the prize home. Who are these unfortunate folks?
Merritt Wever. We love her as goofy nurse Zoey on “Nurse Jackie.” But the supporting actress in a comedy category belongs to either Julie Bowen or Sofia Vergara of “Modern Family” or Mayim Bialik of “The Big Bang Theory.” No one’s even talking about Wever, which is a shame.
Don Cheadle. His nomination for “House of Lies” was a surprise, and normally the presence of such a big-time movie star would be a lock. But the buzz has been around Jim Parsons and Louis C.K., with Alec Baldwin and even Larry David getting more attention. This buzz is also overwhelming another nominee …
Jon Cryer. He might have done himself a disservice by putting himself in the lead category for the first time this year. At least he was in the discussion every year in the supporting category, which he won in 2009. This year, though, people have completely forgotten he even got nominated.
Kristen Wiig and Bill Hader. We love the fact that the academy is giving more nominations to “SNL” cast members, but they still have never pulled the trigger on giving a cast member a supporting award. They won’t start this year, either. Speaking of that particular show…
“Saturday Night Live.” Its presence in the comedy/variety category always feels odd, especially when pitted against the much more of-the-moment humor of the late-night talk shows. But “The Daily Show” has won this award for almost a decade, and even if Jon Stewart and Co. don’t repeat, the other five nominees have a better shot.
Michael C. Hall. In one of the strongest lead actor in a drama fields in years, Hall’s consistently excellent job on “Dexter” is being overshadowed by buzz for all of the other nominees. It’s either going to be Cranston, Jon Hamm or Damian Lewis, with Hugh Bonneville getting some attention as well. It shows how far “Dexter” has fallen on the buzz meter, only a couple of years after it was one of the most talked-about shows on the TV.
Jared Harris. We loved watching him play hapless Lane Pryce on “Mad Men.” But Giancarlo Esposito has this award locked down, with Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage waiting to catch it if it somehow slips through his fingers. In another year, Harris could have walked away with the Emmy, but he has the bad luck of being nominated with the guy who brought us Gus Fring.
“Curb Your Enthusiasm” and “Veep.” “Modern Family” is the returning champ, “Girls” is the critical favorite, “Big Bang” is the popular choice, and even “30 Rock” has its loyalists. “Seinfeld” alums David and Julia Louis-Dreyfus are getting more attention for their acting than their shows are getting for the big prize.